Warning to UFC Fighters: Beware the MMA Bubble

Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is arguably the fastest growing sport in the United States, with the the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) dominating the sport since 1993. With popularity at an all-time high, maverick billionaires and long-time boxing promoters are jumping into the fray, giving fighters more options than ever. Fighting historian Larry Weaver looks at the opportunities - and pitfalls - this presents to today's MMA fighters.

Warning to UFC Fighters: Beware the MMA Bubble

Here’s some unconventional wisdom for all current MMA fighters: there has never been a better time to stay with or get into the UFC. Because when all of the new upstart MMA promotions go belly up, Dana White will reward those who remained loyal, and relish in the unemployment of those who jumped ship.

In a previous post entitled "Randy Couture vs. Fedor Emelianenko: Who Cares?", I boldly predicted that much-ballyhooed MMA upstart "M-1 Global is going to fail. They'll probably go out of business before Fedor's two-year contract is up." Turns out I was overly optimistic. It only took about five months for the company to implode - without ever putting on its first event.

Is there an MMA bubble?

The current MMA landscape is eerily reminiscent of the dot com bubble. The late 1990’s saw investors line up to pour millions into speculative Internet companies. While a few lucky people managed to cash in (hello, Mark Cuban), most investors managed to lose millions. But the biggest losers were the employees - the computer programmers and administrative staff who found themselves dumped into an overcrowded job-market with few prospects for income.

Don’t remember the dot com crash? Well, turn on the news right now to learn about the residential real estate crisis. Despite the lessons of the dot com crash, workers around the country left their stable jobs to become real estate agents at the height of the boom. Fast forward six months, and there are a lot of real estate agents across America looking for a job right now.

Make no mistake, the majority of new MMA companies will be out of business within a year. Investors are in the business of making money. When things go South, they will close up shop and you, the fighter, will find yourself unemployed.

And when the MMA bubble bursts, there will be a lot of talent looking to get into the UFC. They can’t possibly hire everyone.

Is now the time to take chances with your career?

For MMA fighters considering joining an upstart MMA promotion, make sure your signing bonus and guarantee for your first fight (and your first fight only) are equivalent to the UFC offer.

Let’s assume that you have two offers, one from the UFC and one from an upstart promotion. Both are five fight, two year deals. We’ll give the UFC 100% probability of fulfilling your contract, and the upstart promotion 20% probability of fulfilling your contract.

"Winning" formula Upstart deal x .2 (+ singing bonus) > UFC deal x 1.0

If you’re feeling really optimistic, assume that the upstart promotion will last at least one year and fulfill at least 2 of your 5-fight deal (40% probability).

Of course this formula is overly simplistic. It doesn't take into account sponsorship deals, which can exceed a fighters purse. Appearances on CBS or NBC could potentially lead to much more mainstream exposure and lucrative sponsorship deals than available in the UFC. Maybe... Are you willing to be your future it?

A final piece of advice:

Wait until June 1, 2008 before making any contractual decisions.

When the rating comes in for the debut of Elite XC on CBS, you will either have much better offers on the table, or you’ll be glad you didn’t make any rash moves.

Larry Weaver is an author, professional comedian, and expert on Internet marketing. A life-long pro wrestling historian, Larry has followed MMA since UFC 1.

UFC vs. WWE: Top 20 Pro Wrestlers Turned MMA Fighters

Brock Lesnar is hardly the first pro wrestler to break into MMA. But you wouldn’t know that from watching the UFC vs. WWE buildup in the UFC 81 commercials. Brock isn’t even the first WWE Superstar to try MMA. UFC Hall of Famer Ken Shamrock leads that pack which includes Sylvester Terkay, Giant Silva, Ludvig Borga, Sean 'O Haire, and Bart Gunn.

So who are the top pro wrestlers turned MMA fighters? And where does Brock Lesnar fit in the all-time list? Here's my take:

Top 20 Pro Wrestlers Turned MMA Fighters*
(Source: LarryWeaver.com)

1. Kazushi "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba (UWFI) 23 - 10 - 1
2. Dan "The Beast" Severn (NWA) 81 - 15 - 7
3. Ken "The World's Most Dangerous Man" Shamrock (WWE) 26 - 12 - 2
4. Don "The Predator" Frye (New Japan) 17 - 6 - 1
5. Kazuyuki Fujita (New Japan) 14 - 6 - 0
6. Kiyoshi Tamura (UWFI) 27 - 12 - 0
7. Volk Han (Rings) 19 - 6 - 0
8. Brock Lesnar "The Next Big Thing" (WWE) 1 - 0 - 0
9. Bob "The Beast" Sapp (WCW) 9 - 2 - 1
10. Justin McCully (UPW/New Japan) 8 - 3 - 2
11. Sylvester "The Predator" Terkay (WWE) 3 - 1 - 0
12. Ron "H2O" Waterman (OVW) 15 - 5 - 2
13. Dos Caras Jr. (AAA) 6 - 4 - 0
14. Tokimitsu "Kendo Kashin" Ishizawa (New Japan) 1 - 4 - 1
15. Paulo Cesar "Giant" Silva (WWE) 2 - 6 - 0
16. Tony Halme aka "Ludvig Borga" (WWE) 1 - 2 - 0
17. Sean 'O Haire (WCW) 1 - 2 - 0
18. Mike "Bart Gunn" Plotcheck aka "Mike Barton" (WWE) 1 - 1 - 0
19. Craig "The Pitbull" Pittman (WCW) 1 - 1 - 0
20. El Canek (CMLL) 1 - 0 - 0

Honorable Mention: Yoshihiro Takayama (All Japan) 0 - 4 - 0; Tom "KGB" Howard (AAA) 0 - 6 - 0; Anthony "Pitt Bull #2" Durante (ECW) 0 - 2 - 0; Bam Bam Bigelow (WWE) 0 - 1 - 0; Taka Michinoku (WWE) 0 - 1 - 0 ; Jushin "Thunder" Liger (New Japan/WCW) 0 - 1 - 0; Michiyoshi Ohara (New Japan) 0 - 2 - 0; "Lightning Foot" Jerry Flynn (WCW) 0 - 1 - 0

Note: (Parentheses) denotes wrestling organization when they gained most fame.

*Eligibility Rules:

• The athlete must have had their first professional wrestling match prior to their first professional mixed martial arts match.
• Professional wrestling is defined as having “worked” (predetermined) finishes.
• Professional MMA is defined as a paid MMA match (not amateur or exhibition). For clarity, the fighter must have their record listed on Sherdog.com (listed above as win - loss - draw).
• Top 20 takes into account an entire MMA career as well as potential for future MMA success.

Not eligible for this list are Josh Barnett, Tank Abbott, and Daniel Puder. They all had success in both pro wrestling and MMA, but all had their professional MMA debut before their pro wrestling debut.

To be very clear, I don’t expect to get this list right the first time. I encourage your intelligent, articulate input below in the comments section.

Update: Here are some additional candidates for the list:

• Akira Maeda 10 - 5 - 0
• Nobuhiko Takada 2 - 6 - 2
• Masakatsu Funaki 38 - 12 - 1
• Naoya Ogawa 7 - 2 - 0
• Wataru Sakata 6 - 11 - 0
• Serjbudee "Blue Wolf" Dolgorsuren 1 - 0 - 0
• Jadamba Narantungalag 1 - 2 - 0
• Kensuke Sasaki 2 - 0 - 0
• Genki "Neo-Samurai" Sudo 15 - 5 - 1
• Yoji "Mr. 200%" Anjo 0 - 5 - 1
• Geza Kalman 4 - 7 - 0

I guess the point is that there are nearly 50 professional wrestlers who competed in MMA. Many of those competed in both the WWE and the UFC. All of this makes a quote from the Feb. 2 edition of the Washington Post some troublesome: Lesnar "is the first professional wrestler to make the leap to the UFC." That's an unforgivable error in the age of Google. If you don't already, question everything you read.

References:
http://www.sherdog.com
http://www.wrestlingobserver.com
http://www.mmafighting.com/faq/prowrestling.html

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Fabricio Werdum - UFC 80 Predictions

There’s little argument that Randy Couture, Andrei Arlovski, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Fabricio Werdum are Top 10 heavyweights. So when either Gonzaga or Verdum rack up two consecutive losses after UFC 80, there is nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, both men should be lauded for taking such a highly competitive fight at this point in their careers.

As I blogged about in the post Meet your new UFC Heavyweight Champion, Gabriel Gonzaga!, Gabe has all of the tools to be UFC Heavyweight champion. The same could also be said for Werdum. The deciding factor in this contest might just be the training camps. While Werdum has traveled back to Brazil to train with the World-renown Chute Boxe Academy, Gonzaga has chosen to stay put and train with Team Link in the lesser known MMA not-hotbed of Ludlow, Massachusetts. While World-class athletes can certainly emerge from modest surroundings, the question is whether or not Gonzaga has surround himself with enough quality training partners to further his growth. If he’s the top guy in his camp, how will he grow as a fighter?

Nothing against Werdum, but I’m rooting for Gonzaga in this one. He’s most definitely a monster, but has a “likability” factor that is hard to define. That is a highly marketable combination. He’s also working on his English, which all International MMA fighters should make a top priority. (Hey, don’t get mad at me – former Pride President Nobuyuki Sakakibara felt the same way).

See Gonzaga Decapitate Mirko Cro Cop

Look for an exciting contest as Gonzaga looks to return to Heavyweight contention and Werdum looks to exercise the specter of the Arlovski snoozefest. Whoever the winner, they're surely deserving of a shot against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (or Tim Sylvia, should he decide to let his fists fly).

And don't forget my man Heath Herring. He's coming back! Now, on to predictions...

UFC 80 Predictions

B.J. PENN VS. JOE STEVENSON
MMA Weekly: Penn by submission in the third round
Sherdog: Penn by rear-naked choke early in the second round

GABRIEL GONZAGA VS. FABRICIO WERDUM
MMA Weekly: Gabriel Gonzaga by decision
Sherdog: Gonzaga by TKO late in the second round

MARCUS DAVIS VS. JESS LIAUDIN
MMA Weekly: Davis by TKO in the third round
Sherdog: Davis by TKO early in the second round

JASON LAMBERT VS. WILSON GOUVEIA
MMA Weekly: Gouveia by decision
Sherdog: Gouveia by guillotine choke late in the first round

KENDALL GROVE VS. JORGE RIVERA
MMA Weekly: Grove by submission in the first round
Sherdog: Grove by TKO stoppage in the second round

ALESSIO SAKARA VS. JAMES LEE
MMA Weekly: Alessio Sakara by TKO in the first round
Sherdog: Lee by submission

SAM STOUT VS. PER EKLUND
MMA Weekly: Stout by decision
Sherdog: Eklund by first round strangulation

PAUL TAYLOR VS. PAUL KELLY
MMA Weekly: Taylor by KO in the first round
Sherdog: Taylor by second round KO

ANTONI HARDONK VS. COLIN ROBINSON
MMA Weekly: Hardonk by KO in the first round
Sherdog: Hardonk by first round knockout

Fantasy UFC - Liddell v Silva UFC 79 Predictions

Fantasy UFC 79 Booking

Lately I've been waxing nostalgic about my days as a pro wrestling script writer. I thought it might be fun to write up the script for UFC 79 as if it were booked by a pro wrestling promoter. This is all in good fun. Please don't take any of it seriously. And by all means post your own fantasy results in the comments section.

Wanderlei Silva Beats Chuck Liddell Convincingly
UFC needs a strong debut from the Axe Murderer . He’s got a tremendous updside and natural heel charisma. Plus, Chuck is more “bulletproof”. That is, he can bounce back from a loss more easily in the fans eyes. With this loss, it transforms Chuck from the mohawked killer into the aging star on the comeback trail. That role suits Chuck’s soft-spoken demeanor well.

[Cut to the post fight with Joe Rogan and Silva]

Silva: “Joe, I’ve waiting for this fight for five years. A little over a year ago, I came right here to Vegas on the biggest stage of them all – Pride. And I called out Liddell. I said “Where’s Chuck?” He’s hard to find, you know. And after tonight he’s going to be even harder to find. That’s why I’ve created a new children’s book called “Where’s Chuck”. [Pulls out a very well-done children's book mockup as Rogan looks on in disgust.] Here’s the referee announcing the winner of the Hampage fight. Where’s Chuck? By the way, Joe, did you know I have knocked out Hampage twice?”

Rogan: “It’s pronounced Rampage.”

Silva: [turning the page] “Here’s the referee announcing the winner tonight. Where’s Chuck? [turns the page] Oh wait - I found him. Here’s Chuck in the retirement home! [Holds up illustration of Liddell in a rocking chair. His cornermen join in as they point and laugh at the still fallen Liddell.]

[The crowd goes wild as a familiar blonde figure bursts into the octagon. It’s Tito Ortiz!]

Ortiz: “I’ve heard just about enough of this, Joe. You know Chuck and I aren’t exactly the best of friends. And everyone knows I talk a lot of trash. But after he beat me last year right here Vegas, I was man enough to admit that Chuck was the greatest. And to hear this punk out here trash talking a living legend, well, I’ve heard just about enough!” [removes shirt]

Silva: “Easy there bad boy. Believe me, I would love to avenge my so called “loss” over you. But rumor has it you’re in a contract dispute with the UFC. As much as I’d like to wipe the mat with you, it’s not going to happen. Hit the bricks, Tito. Maybe you can join Chuck in the retirement home.”

Goldberg: “He’s right, fans. Dana White and Ortiz at a contract impasse. There’s no way White is going to make this fight.”

Ortiz: [to White who has been standing by] “Dana, I know you and I don’t see eye to eye. And I know you think I’m all about money. Well, here’s the deal. I’ll fight this bum for FREE! [crowd roars in approval]. What do you say, Dana? Ortiz vs. Silva II – winner takes all! Whoever wins gets the winner’s and loser’s share of the purse. Whoever loses gets nothing!”

White: [Not thinking on his feet] “Tito Ortiz fighting in the UFC for free? I like the sound of that!”

Ortiz: “What do you say, Silva? We’re talking about the biggest single payday in the history of MMA. Are you in – or are you afraid I will beat you again?”

Silva: “I know your game, Ortiz. You think you’ll just hold me down for three rounds while you squeak out another tainted victory handed to you by crooked American judges. But I’m not worried about that. I’m going to knock you out. It’s on!”

This sets up Ortiz (cornered by Liddell) vs. Silva in the biggest money payday in MMA history. The winner will go on to face the Griffith vs. Jackson winner.

Ultimate Fighting Championship - Ultimate Iceman - Chuck Liddell

St-Pierre Beats Hughes Convincingly
In the buildup for this fight, the UFC should feature interviews with some of the top welterweights: Thiago Alvez, Jon Fitch, Josh Koschek, Karo Parisyan, and champ Matt Sera. Karo would sound very disgruntled in his interviews that he didn’t get the title shot. Again, I would have St-Pierre win. Like Liddell, Hughes can weather the loss more easily in fans eyes.

[cut to the post-fight interview with Joe Rogan]

St-Pierre: “I’d like to thank Matt Hughes for the opportunity to fight him again. I was very impressed with his performance, and was very fortunate to come out on top again. Thank you Dana White for making this fight. Thank you to UFC and all the fans. I look forward to fighting Matt Serra again as soon as he is recovered from his injury. In the meantime, I will fight whoever the UFC puts in front of me. I’d like to fight Jon Fitch or Thiago Alves.”

[Karo Parisyan makes his way into the octagon and grabs the microphone. He is wearing a t-shirt that reads “UFC can’t stand The Heat.”]

Parisyan: “No disrespect to you St-Pierre or to you Hughes. This is directed at Dana White. Two years ago I was promised a title shot. Well, it’s two years later, and I’m still waiting. I’ve done nothing but beat everyone the UFC has put in front of me. My only “loss” was a decision over hand-picked UFC poster boy Diego Sanchez. And let’s face it, he hasn’t been the same since I got through with him. And what happens? Hughes gets shot after shot. St-Pierre gets shot after shot. Hell, even Matt Serra gets a title shot after winning some TV show. Where’s my shot? I want St-Pierre. [faces off with Georges]. St-Pierre, I’m calling you out. I want that belt!”

[Dana White tries to calm Karo down. Karo grabs White by the lapel and pulls him close]

Parisyan: “I want that title shot, Dana. You promised me!”

White: “Karo, you know if you put your hands on me you’ll be fired. Then you’ll never get a shot.”

Parisyan: “Fire me! If I don’t get my title shot, I’d rather be fired. There are plenty of Mavericks out there that would love to fire up a Cuban and Mark out over the Heat!”

Goldberg: “You’re not allowed to say half those words on the UFC. Who does he think he is, Joe Rogan?”

[A disturbance breaks out in the stands. The crowd goes wild as the camera zooms in on – Nate and Nick Diaz!]

Nick: “Hey Heat, you want a fight? Why don’t you meet me in the parking lot?”

Parisyan: “Look it’s dumb and dumber! Nick, I’ve already destroyed you. How about I beat your little brother while you watch!” [The Diaz brothers rush towards the octagon as security holds them back.]

Goldberg: “He doesn’t work here! Nick Diaz was fired by Dana White!” [cut to black]

In the post-show press conference, Dana White announces that Parisyan will get everything he asked for. First off, he gets a shot at Nate Diaz, who agrees to move up a weight class to fight the Heat. Relenting to Karo’s demands, White agrees to allow Nick Diaz to corner Nate so that “that bum can see me beat his punk brother to a pulp close up.” If Parisyan wins, he’ll get the very next title shot. If Parisyan loses, he gets released from his UFC contract and is allowed to fight elsewhere immediately (albeit with the stigma of being beaten by an unranked lightweight).

Meanwhile, faced with the prospect of the ultra-polite St-Pierre vs. the soft-spoken Jon Fitch, White brings back the USA vs. Canada PPV format. To spice things up, Matt Hughes will corner Jon Fitch, while Canadian native Jim Carrey will once again channel the spirit of Andy Kaufman as he builds up St-Pierre’s fight against Fitch. The loser must kiss Michael Moore’s foot.

UFC Ultimate Knockouts, Vol. 4

UFC 78 Predictions: Evans vs. Bisping

Who do the top journalists in MMA think will win this weekend's UFC matchups? Pride is on the line as the top MMA sites vie for prediction supremacy. See which expert comes out on top this time around:

UFC 78: Validation
Live from Newark - Saturday, November 17, 2007

Michael Bisping (+215) vs. Rashad Evans (-275)
MMA Weekly: Evans by decision
MMA Junkie: Evans by 2nd round TKO
Sherdog: Evans by decision
WINNER: Evans by decision

Houston Alexander (-155) vs. Thiago Silva (+125)
MMA Weekly: Silva by 2nd round submission
MMA Junkie: Alexander by 1st round TKO
Sherdog: Alexander by 1st round TKO
WINNER: Silva by 1st round TKO

Joe Doerksen (+120) vs. Ed Herman (-150)
MMA Weekly: Doerksen by 3rd round submission
MMA Junkie: Doerksen by submission
Sherdog: Doerksen by 3rd round submission
WINNER: Herman by 3rd round TKO

Ryo Chonan (+275) vs. Karo Parisyan (-345)
MMA Weekly: Parisyan by decision
MMA Junkie: Parisyan by 2nd round TKO
Sherdog: Parisyan by decision
WINNER: Parisyan by decision

Frankie Edgar (-135) vs. Spencer Fisher (+105)
MMA Weekly: Edgar by decision
MMA Junkie: Fisher
Sherdog: Edgar by 2nd round TKO
WINNER: Edgar by decision

Chris Lytle (+150) vs. Thiago Alves (-180)
MMA Weekly: Alves by decision
MMA Junkie: Alves by decision
Sherdog: Alves by 3rd round TKO
WINNER: Alves by doctor stoppage

Jason Reinhardt (+300) vs. Joe Lauzon (-600)
MMA Weekly: Lauzon by 1st round TKO
MMA Junkie: Reinhardt by 1st round submission
Sherdog: Lauzon
WINNER: Lauzon by 1st round submission

Luke Caudillo (+350) vs. Marcus Aurelio (-450)
MMA Weekly: Aurelio by 1st round submission
MMA Junkie: Aurelio by 2nd round submission
Sherdog: Aurelio by 1st round submission
WINNER: Aurelio by 1st round TKO

Akihiro Gono (-260) vs. Tamdan McCrory (+200)
MMA Weekly: Gono by decision
MMA Junkie: Gono by decision
Sherdog: Gono by 1st round TKO
WINNER: Gono by 2nd round submission

Post-fight Predictions Scorecard
MMA Weekly: 8-1 WINNER
Sherdog: 7-2
MMA Junkie: 5-4

Congratulations to MMA Weekly's Ricardo Mendoza for posting a near-perfect 8-1 prediction scorecard. Bonus points for being the lone site to pick Thiago Silva to upset Houston Alexander. Great job, MMA Weekly!

Randy Couture vs. Fedor Emelianenko: Who Cares?

There's been much written about UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture's abrupt resignation from the UFC, which stemmed at least partly over the UFC's inability to sign consensus top heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko. And there's plenty to talk about since the formation of M-1 Global and the announcement of their newest acquisition, the aforementioned Fedor Emelianenko.

• Could Couture and Emelianenko finally meet at an M-1 PPV event?
• Who would win the matchup between UFC's former champ vs. Pride's former champ?
• Can Captain America stop the Russian Cyborg?

The real question is: will anyone care?

Here's the deal: M-1 Global is going to fail. They'll probably go out of business before Fedor's two-year contract is up.

Here's a quote direct from Mitchell Maxwell, CEO of M-1 Global's parent company:

"A big part of the success of M-1 Global is that we've signed the No. 1 fighter in the world in Fedor. Our goal is to make him a household name (in the U.S.)."

Red Flag Alert: If you're building a new MMA company, do not bank your success on one fighter. In fact, don't bank your success on ANY fighters. All kinds of things can go wrong with this business plan.

Imagine if you started an MMA company in 2004 and you were lucky enough to sign rising superstar Frank Mir to a multi-year deal. Think about that for a minute...

Part of UFC critic's and fighter's gripes (including Couture) is that the UFC cares more about the UFC than the individual fighters. Well, guess what? They have to. If the UFC built its organization around fighters, it likely wouldn't still be around. Fighters get hurt. Fighters leave. Fighters come and go. You have to build a brand and keep the brand strong.

Having said that, you do need stars. There's no question that Couture was a star, drawing card, and ambassador for the UFC. But he won't draw anywhere else. Did you pay to see Randy's match against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza during his retirement from the UFC? I didn't think so.

So what if Couture vs Emelianenko took place at an M-1 event? Who cares? What are they fighting for?

And even if the event did take place, UFC would offer a free UFC Marathon on Spike to counter the PPV. Bank on it. And bank on this: UFC could offer an event headlined by Matt Serra (or Pete Sell, or Rashad Evans, or anyone) for free on Spike, and more people would watch it than the Couture vs Emelianenko M-1 PPV.

Those are the facts.

MMA's popularity is built on "casual" fans, not hardcore fans. The casual fan has no idea that Couture left UFC. They don't even care. They watch UFC because it is cool, popular, and because it is something fun to do with their friends. And here's another thing - the casual fan has never heard of Fedor Emelianenko.

So congratulations, M-1. You've got the #1 ranked fighter in the World. Good luck with that.

• Watch Fedor in Action
• Watch Randy in Action

UFC 75 Predictions and Results: Jackson v. Henderson

Who do the top journalists in MMA think will win this weekend's UFC matchups? We've aggregated predictions from MMA Junkie, MMA Weekly, Sherdog, MMA Torch, Yahoo! Sports, and SLAM! Sports. Sherdog reigned supreme with their UFC 74 pics. See see which expert comes out on top this time around:

UFC 75: Champion vs. Champion
Live from London - Saturday, September 8, 2007

Quinton Jackson vs. Dan Henderson
Sherdog: Jackson by 4th round TKO
MMA Weekly: Henderson by 2nd round TKO
MMA Junkie: Henderson by decision
WINNER: Jackson by unanimous decision

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Cheick Kongo
Sherdog: Cro Cop by 2nd round TKO
MMA Weekly: Cro Cop by 1st round TKO
MMA Junkie: Cro Cop by 2nd round TKO
WINNER: Kongo by unanimous decision

Matt Hamill vs. Michael Bisping
Sherdog: Bisping by 2nd round TKO
MMA Weekly: Bisping by 1st round TKO
MMA Junkie: Bisping by 2nd round TKO
WINNER: Bisping by split decision

Marcus Davis vs. Paul Taylor
Sherdog: Davis by 1st round TKO
MMA Weekly: Davis by 3rd round submission
MMA Junkie: Davis by 3rd round TKO
WINNER: Davis by 1st round submission

Houston Alexander vs. Alessio Sakara
Sherdog: Alexander by 1st round TKO
MMA Weekly: Sakara by 1st round TKO
MMA Junkie: Alexander by 2nd round TKO
WINNER: Alexander by 1st round TKO

Terry Etim vs. Gleison Tibau
Sherdog: Etim by 3rd round TKO
MMA Weekly: Tibau by decision
MMA Junkie: Tibau by decision
WINNER: Tibau by unanimous decision

Tomasz Drwal vs. Thiago Silva
Sherdog: Drwal by 1st round TKO
MMA Weekly: Silva by1st round TKO
MMA Junkie: Silva by 2nd round submission
WINNER: Silva by 2nd round TKO

Dennis Siver vs. Naoyuki Kotani
Sherdog: Kotani by 1st round submission
MMA Weekly: Siver by 1st round TKO
MMA Junkie: Kotani by 1st round submission
WINNER: Siver by 2nd round KO

Jess Liaudin vs. Anthony Torres
Sherdog: Liaudin by unanimous decision
MMA Weekly: Liaudin by 1st round submission
MMA Junkie: Liaudin by unanimous decision
WINNER: Liaudin by 1st round TKO

Post-fight Predictions Scorecard
Sherdog: 5-4
MMA Weekly: 6-3
MMA Junkie: 6-3

I'll keep this post updated as more predictions come in. If you know of other respectable sites that should be listed, please post the predictions URL in the comments section. And finally - who do you think will win?

UFC 74 Predictions Roundup: Couture v. Gonzaga

Who do the top journalists in MMA think will win this weekend's UFC matchups? We've aggregated predictions from UFC Junkie, MMA Weekly, Sherdog, MMA Torch, Yahoo! Sports, and SLAM! Sports. I've already predicted my winner of the UFC 74 main event between defending Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture and challenger Gabriel Gonzaga in my post, Meet your new UFC Heavyweight Champion, Gabriel Gonzaga! Now see who the experts picked:

UFC 74: Respect
Live from Las Vegas - Saturday, August 25, 2007

Thales Leites (-270) vs. Ryan Jensen (+210)
Sherdog: Leites by 1st round submission
UFC Junkie: Leites by 2nd round submission
MMA Weekly: Leites by 1st round submission
MMA Torch: Leites by 2nd round submission
Yahoo! Sports: Leites by 2nd round submission
WINNER: Leites by 1st round submission

Frank Mir (-170) vs. Antoni Hardonk (+140)
Sherdog: Mir by 1st round submission
UFC Junkie: Mir by 1st round submission
MMA Weekly: Mir by decision
MMA Torch: Mir by 1st round TKO
Yahoo! Sports: Mir by 1st round submission
WINNER: Mir by 1st round submission

Roger Huerta (-450) vs. Alberto Crane (+300)
Sherdog: Huerta by 1st round TKO
UFC Junkie: Huerta by 2nd round TKO
MMA Torch: Huerta by 1st round TKO
SLAM! Sports: Huerta by 1st round TKO
Yahoo! Sports: Huerta by 3rd round TKO
MMA Weekly: Huerta by 2nd round TKO
WINNER: Huerta by 3rd round TKO

Clay Guida (-120) vs. Marcus Aurelio (-110)
Sherdog: Guida by decision
UFC Junkie: Aurelio by 2nd round submission
MMA Weekly: Guida by 2nd round TKO
MMA Torch: Guida by decision
Yahoo! Sports: Aurelio by decision
WINNER: Guida by decision

Renato Sobral (-210) vs. David Heath (+170)
Sherdog: Sobral by 2nd round submission
UFC Junkie: Heath by decision
MMA Weekly: Sobral by decision
MMA Torch: Heath by 3rd round TKO
Yahoo! Sports: Heath by 3rd round TKO
WINNER: Sobral by 2nd round submission

Kendall Grove (-260) vs. Patrick Cote (+200)
Sherdog: Grove by 2nd round submission
UFC Junkie: Grove by decision
MMA Torch: Grove by 1st round TKO
SLAM! Sports: Grove by 2nd round submission
Yahoo! Sports: Grove by 1st round TKO
MMA Weekly: Grove by 2nd round submission
WINNER: Cote by 1st round TKO

Joe Stevenson (-295) vs Kurt Pellegrino (+235)
Sherdog: Stevenson by 2nd round TKO
UFC Junkie: Pellegrino by submission
MMA Torch: Stevenson by 3rd round submission
SLAM! Sports: Stevenson by decision
Yahoo! Sports: Stevenson by 3rd round submission
MMA Weekly: Stevenson by decision
WINNER: Stevenson by decision

Georges St. Pierre (-220) vs. Josh Koscheck (+180)
Sherdog: St. Pierre by decision
UFC Junkie: Koscheck by decision
MMA Torch: St. Pierre by 1st round TKO
SLAM! Sports: St. Pierre by 1st round TKO
Yahoo! Sports: St. Pierre by decision
MMA Weekly: Koscheck by decision
WINNER: St. Pierre by decision

Gabriel Gonzaga (-135) vs. Randy Couture (+105)
Sherdog: Couture by 4th round TKO
UFC Junkie: Gonzaga by 4th round submission
MMA Torch: Gonzaga by 3rd round TKO
SLAM! Sports: Couture by decision
Yahoo! Sports: Couture by decision
MMA Weekly: Gonzaga by 4th round TKO
WINNER: Couture by 3rd round TKO

UPDATE: Predictions Scorecard
Sherdog: 8-1
SLAM! Sports: 4-1*
Yahoo! Sports: 6-3
MMA Torch: 6-3
MMA Weekly: 6-3
UFC Junkie: 3-6
*Only picked main card bouts

Sherdog, SLAM! Sports, and Yahoo! Sports all correctly predicted both main events.

I'll try to keep this post updated as more predictions come in. If you know of other respectable sites that should be listed, please post the predictions URL in the comments section. And finally - who do you think will win?

Meet your new UFC Heavyweight Champion, Gabriel Gonzaga!

Something funny happened on the way to the potential record-breaking PPV event featuring UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy “The Natural” Couture defending his belt against the Croatian killing machine, Mirko Cro Cop. Crop Cop got dropped (badly) by virtually unknown Gabriel Gonzaga.

The tide started to turn in the pre-fight commentary. Randy Couture – perhaps the greatest MMA strategist of all time – predicted Gonzaga to win. What’s more, he basically flat-out said that he’d rather fight Cro Cop than Gonzaga. Can you imagine a man so tough that you’d rather get in the ring with knockout specialist Cro Cop? Oh yeah, we just saw him drop Cro Cop cold.

So what does the UFC do now? They’ve lost a PPV dream match between Couture and Cro Cop – and all the money that goes with it. Nobody wants to pay to see their hero lose to some unknown guy (which is the very reason I choose not to watch the Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva fight). How can the UFC spin this into a positive?

The answer is simple, turn on the Gonzaga hype machine! He’s a big dude. He’s got a strong highlight reel. He just destroyed one of the best heavyweights on the planet. He seems like a nice guy. He speaks a little English (work on that, Gabe). All he needs is a few well-produced videos and he’ll make a great UFC champion.

Look how easy it easy it is:
“Tune into UFC 74 to see beloved veteran champion Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture face the unstoppable knockout power of Mirko Cro Cop Gabriel Gonzaga.”

See? It just takes a little bit of creative editing. Couture gets to play the role he's comfortable in: the underdog facing insurmountable odds. If Couture loses, UFC has a new monster heavyweight champion. If Couture wins, wow – he did it again. Everybody goes home happy.

But for all this to work, UFC has to roll the dice and build up Gonzaga big-time (I recommend some beach training videos with Rachelle Leah). UFC needs to do something soon, because Gongaza will be the next UFC champion. I mean, Couture can't do the impossible again... can he?

Heath Herring better UFC addition than Rampage or Cro Cop?

Is Heath Herring More Valuable to the UFC than Quinton Jackson or Cro Cop?

Here's a toast to Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) president Dana White and everyone at Zuffa. UFC caps off the biggest year in US mixed martial arts (MMA) with what will likely be the highest-grossing MMA event ever, UFC 66: Liddell vs. Ortiz II. The card features the highly anticipated rematch for the UFC Light Heavyweight championship between champ "The Iceman" Chuck Liddell and former champ Tito Ortiz, plus a loaded undercard featuring rising stars Forrest Griffin, Chris Leben and Michael Bisping, as well as former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski.

The fights alone should be enough to keep MMA fans buzzing into the New Year. But there's more news: the outspoken and flamboyant Quinton "Rampage" Jackson will be at the MGM Garden Arena to watch his friend Ortiz and likely to announce his upcoming UFC debut against Marvin "The Beastman" Eastman. In acquiring Jackson, UFC has added an extra-tough fighter with a gift of gab like no other in the fight game. He’s got a built-in storyline against Eastman (avenging a prior loss to the Beastman), and oh yeah… he holds a win over current UFC Light Heavyweight champ Liddell. Should Ortiz fail to wrest the title away from Liddell, you can bet Rampage will be waiting in the wings with something to say!

All that should really keep fight fans buzzing after UFC 66. But wait, there’s even more! Sherdog.com has announced that the UFC has signed and will introduce at UFC 66 Croatian heavyweight Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. The reigning PRIDE Open-Weight Grand Prix champion and future hall of famer can make the argument for being the best fighter in the World right now after successfully defeating “The Axe Murderer” Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett in the same night! In addition, he brings his lethal high kick into the Octagon which will undoubtedly add severable memorable moments to the next edition of “UFC Ultimate Knockouts”. With Cro Cop destined to become UFC Heavyweight Champion, UFC can rightfully claim to have the undisputed best heavyweight champion in the World (no apologies to current champ Tim Sylvia).

With all of the (deserved) hype around Rampage and Cro Cop, one fighter has been woefully ignored. I’m talking about none other than the 6’4 tough-as-nails heavyweight Heath "Texas Crazy Horse" Herring. The tall Texan has made a name for himself in Japan’s PRIDE and K-1 taking on the best of the best. His 26-11 record is nothing to be ashamed of, since some of his recent loses were at the hands of masters like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (twice), Mirko Filipovic, and current PRIDE heavyweight king Fedor Emelianenko. This guy has everything you’d want in a UFC fighter: he’s tall, good looking, well-spoken, known for wild haircuts, and he’s from Texas. He’s basically a bigger, more experienced, more in-your-face version of Forrest Griffin. In short, Crazy Horse is a US fight fan’s dream.

So why is no one excited about Herring? Surely it’s the buzz around the more talented Cro Cop and the more flamboyant Rampage. But here’s the bottom line on those two guys: they’re all about money. Check their track records: as soon as those two can do so, they will leverage their UFC deal to go fight somewhere else. And with MMA on fire right and everyone wanting into the game, there will be someone to pay them whatever they want. Herring, however, is a guy you can build around. He should be given a slow accession in the ranks during 2007 so that when Cro Cop is gone, he can step in and claim the Heavyweight title. He’ll make a great face for UFC and will wear the belt proudly.

So the question is this: is Crazy Horse a better long-term acquisition than Rampage or Cro Cop? Only time will tell. But until then, what do you think?